Bonk!

OK, just a quick status update on last week's bets to kick this week off. Been busy cranking on those infernal betting engines that will make this site into a game someday.

No one will notice that I'm updating this a little late so let's see where we landed..

1. Brad Pitt retiring in 3yrs, HSX will be up 3pts by 11/20
Um, BPITT started last week at H$ 92.87 when I made the bet and he rose a little before he tanked over the weekend -- closed today at H$ 83.03. Ouch, down almost $H 10. That's nuts.. There's a Hollywood lesson in here somewhere about stepping out of the limelight.. and I lose this bet bigtime.

2. Kirsten Dunst gets a small lift from Melancholia, 1% SEB gain this week
So KD started at 20.70 and got a nice little lift to 21.90, which is almost 6%! Way past 1%. OK, that was a wimpy bet, but at least I win one..

3. Roony Mara restarts upward climb, up 2% HSX this week
I guess the viral tattoo campaign didn't have much impact. Roony is up, but barely.. H$ 0.09! Not even a tenth of the movement I needed to win. BONK! I lose..

4. Bradley Cooper goes flat or drops on HSX by 11/20
I was dying to see the outcome of this one, especially after a steady diet of anti-Cooper snark. Drumroll.. Ha! The day of the sexy prize (and my bet) BC was trading  at H$ 124.24 and trending up -- but lo! A drop! He's down every day since and trading at H$ 120.62. Thanks People magazine. Win for moi!

5. Twilight Breaking Dawn 1 is gonna do less than 120m this weekend
Another baited breath moment for me. But alas, BD1 hit 138m. Didn't knock off Potter, but outperformed Potter DH1 by a chunk. Blech. Loss for me, and for Western Civilization in general.

6. Ricky Gervais barely causes a ripple -- less than 5% uptick -- on Google Search Trends
I had to think this was a slam dunk.. but no. The bum went and almost tripled his numbers the day after this bet -- from relative 0.96 to 2.74! -- but he's now back down under 1. So I lose. Heck. Gotta stay out of the way of that wild trend-o-meter in the future..

7. Kim is bringing down the House of K -- FB ouster poll hits 100k by 11/20 EOD
Man, not even close -- the poll went from 50k to 55k, about 10% when I needed 100%! Another loss for both me and mankind.

8. Long on DMOOR
Last but not least, sweet Deh Mee! I needed to see 2% in a couple days to win my bet. She started at H$ 6.79 and today she's H$ 6.91. Ooooh, so close. H$ 6.92 would be 2% rounded down.. damn, just won't fit. So I lose by a squeak. But I think I proved my point. BTW, AKUTC is up as well nicely. This divorce thing might work out for everybody..

So if you woulda bet against me this week you woulda made out like The Situation on his Eye Talian vacation.. I won two and lost 6! Ha!

OK, on to another week.

BET: 11/17 -- Long On DMOOR

Yes, Demi and Captain "Love and Light" are finally getting that divorce they've been cruising for. Sigh. I kinda thought they had enough of the ding-y cheezy thing in common to make it last, um, forever. Seriously! But the lesson here kids is: Cheeze is not a good foundation for a marriage.

Remind me to do a post someday on star marriages and divorces with raw HSX stock trends (i.e. perceived Hollywood value!) as a leading indicator of nuptial thrash. Look at these two -- DMOOR and AKUTC -- and tell me you couldn't see it coming. Ja?

Funny thing is, I bet Demi has another rally in her. She might be off the boytoy angle for a bit here, but she's a fighter, and I think she's motivated. In fact, I bet her rally starts this weekend.

Fameology Winter 2011

Long On DMOOR

48 hrs

Shelby says: DMOOR will see +2% on the HSX this weekend

1
B$

You say: She's still going nowhere fast

Hollywood Stock Exchange

Resolves NOV 20 11:59p

BET: 11/17 -- Occupy The Kardashians

Outrage is in the air so why wouldn't the Kardashians be butt-muscling into the action? Now they are being protested! These people have a genius for the zeitgeist -- don't anyone tell them about Penn State.

Listen, there have always been marriages of convenience and economic gain. And there will plenty more to come.

Obviously someone in the K-mafia (I'm looking at you Kris Jenner) knows that having each of the alpha-sisters with an NBA manbitch would make for some sensational TV. Especially if each of the dudes plays on, let's say, a big market NBA team. Imagine the episodes where the teams play each other? The drama! So, let's see, we've got Mr. Kloe playing for the Lakers, so Mr. Kim should be from the Knicks? Whoops, Danilo wasn't interested, rats! But.. wait.. if you squint I'd say the New Jersey Nets will work just fine. Hello Mr. Humphries, please sign these forms.

What's interesting here is that when economic value of a celebrity marriage becomes so Krassly self-referenced -- that is, when famesque people flaunt the laws of suspension-of-disbelief -- then even the most dopey OMG facetard is going to start feeling used. And then the whole thing collapses. Just ask Spencer of Speidi near-fame.

[I can't resist a couple sports side-bar questions here: Do you think the NBA lockout and likely loss of the season was a factor in the divorce? And, have you noticed the spike in statistical performance of Reggie Bush since the divorce was announced? Wheels within wheels, baby..]

So, is Kim the third horse of the Kardashian apocalpyse? Are we almost there? Ha! I can hear the interwebs singing!!

Shelby says: the FB petition-movement to oust the Kardashians from TV is 50k+ strong and will be over 100k by Sunday night (11/20 11:59p).
You say: yeah, haters gonna hate but that goofy FB page we won't be at 100k "likes" that quickly..
Stakes: 1 Brag ($B)
Close: 11/18
Data of Record: Boycot RealityTV

Fameology Winter 2011 Game

OCCUPY THE KARDASHIANS

48 hrs

Shelbyville Manhattan

Darth Pixie-Menudao

Petition to boycott Kardashians at 100k by end of day 11/20

Not so fast..

Boycott RealityTV

ACCEPT

B

1

test

BET: 11/16 -- How Much Ricky Gervias Is Enough Ricky Gervais?

I found myself making the comment today that I liked the US version of The Office better than the UK version because there is a finite amount -- a quite modest finite amount -- of Ricky Gervais that my nervous system can tolerate happily. Cringing for an hour straight gives me cramps.

The announcement that Ricky is going to do the Golden Globes again -- round three, ding ding -- this January I think actually proves my point. Think: small doses, like this top-ten list of some of last year's jokes, where I think he works. Movies? Two-hour comedy specials? Exhausting.

Well, let's see what the piece of news does to the interwebs. I think the buzz will be modest on such an announcement, with the Google Search Trends Index sticking pretty close to home -- no more than 5% uptick at any time before the end of the weekend. Whaddaya think? Looks like good old RGERV is tanking at the HSX, btw..

Shelby says: Google stays quiet on the news Ricky Gervais is hosting the Golden Globes -- less than 5% bump in the GST at any point before 11/20 EOD.
You say: Remember, even bad news counts as buzz.. It's gonna be more than that..
Stakes: 1 Brag ($B)
Close: 11/18
Data of Record: 30-day Google Search Trends (relative scale)

BET: 11/16 -- Twihards Gonna Cry

You may not be aware of the raging war between the Twihards and the Potterheads, but if your voice recently changed or you just got your period then you're probably slugging it out in these semi-magical trenches. And you just rolled your eyes -- there, you did it again.

Harry Potter DH2 has owned the box-office domestic weekend opening gross with a whopping 169.2m weekend take this summer. According to Box Office Mojo the first real challenger to that title opens this weekend -- The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (Part One).

But I'm not sure sure that this installment of Twilight has the oomph to kick Potter's butt. In fact I don't think it's even going to be close. Piffle!

Fameology Winter 2011

Breaking Dawn Opening

48 hrs

Shelby says: BD1's first weekend haul less than $120m

1
B$

You say: Latest undead flick rises north of $120m

Box Office Mojo

Resolves NOV 20 11:59p

Rosanna Arquette's Colon Alien Overlord

(Hint: he has a green head.. see him?)

Yes, I'm bet-less on this one -- just wanted to make a gratuitous link to the Fug Girls fine snarkery and say that this picture proves that Captain Karma is still working hard to right the cosmic injustice of casting this woman as Jean-Marc Barr's claws-on-the-chalkboard-voiced girlfriend in The Big Blue, lo these many years ago. Keep working Captain, still have work to do.

BET: 11/16 -- Baby Jesus Flattens Bradley Cooper's Fame Curve

Nobody tracks the world's sexiest man alive like I do. Well, maybe Baby Jesus is a little more invested.

Yes -- People magazine just dropped the Cooper sexy-bomb on The List today. So much for the Brad Pitt three-peat I've been praying for.

Cooper just does not do it for me. Maybe I'm still stuck with that image of him from Alias as Will the creepy friendboy of Sydney Bristow, a typecast taste that all the Limitless in the world can't wash out of my mouth. Maybe it's the dalliance with Aniston, who it turns out has evolved into some kind of institution, a halfway house for dudes travelling between A-list and B-list in either direction. Maybe it's his trademark smirk. Don't know.

Anyway, I'm not going to buy short positions on HSX, but I am going to predict that his curve flattens based on the theory that some people just can't sustain too much exposure -- think: another Aniston alum Vince Vaughn.

Shelby says: Cooper can't keep gaining value on HSX -- 100% gain in 6 months! -- and the SMA from People means the start of a flat curve for the dude -- no gain by Sunday end of day.
You say: get real, he's going to keep climbing at least a little, the plateau is a ways off.
Stakes: 1 Brag ($B)
Close: 11/18 EOD

Index: Google Search Trends

Good news and bad news.

First the bad news: It turns out that Search Engine Buzz has so far been pretty slow and the "hits" data doesn't get updated very quickly. After two days, no movement. Check that. Just saw some movement tonight so we'll see in the morning. So yeah, I'll keep tracking it and  that metric may come around, but I think I've found something better.

Which is my good news -- it looks like Google provides trend data on their searches! Awesome.. What a cool way to measure buzz that's probably more accurate than the "hits" metric.

Here what it looks like on -- say.. Brad Pitt. 

Remember my bet that his HSX value would go up? Looks like his search hits trended up as well ? Check out the "movement" on his retirement announce.. cool, eh? This shows that searches on Google jumped from 1.02 to 1.62 -- 58% between 11/13 and 11/14. Ha! 

Yeah baby.. welcome to Betsville.

BET: 11/15 -- Tattoo Movie Marketing Re-starts Roony Mara Fame Surge

You're insane if you don't think that Rooney Mara is going to see her career change dramatically with the release of the American film version of the Millenium series. Like.. POW! -- where POW! is a punch in the ladynuts.

How soon will the fame-o-meter trend up? With the sneak previews and test screenings and viral fake-leak campaigns starting starting to flame into the mediasphere I think no doubt she will trend up again.. Notice her slump in July on the HSX? I haven't researched this for an airtight theory but my seat-of-the-pants guess is that she caught an early hype cycle and then everyone went on holiday and forgot about her. Well, I think she'll be back and will see at least 2pts of HSX action before the weekend is out. At least.

Shelby says: Rooney Mara starts her inevitable re-start lurch into fame this week, at least 2% gain on the HSX before next week ($H 45.42 or above by 11:59p 11/20).
You say: Too soon grasshoppa.. too soon.. wait until the movie releases.. less than 2% this week.
Stakes: 1 Brag ($B)
Close: 11/17 EOD

BET:11/14 -- Kirsten Dunst As Serious Actress?

KD has survived all kinds of nonsense, I'm thinking especially Hitler-boy at Cannes this summer. Sigh..

Sure, the Fug girls are taking a bit of a run at her today, but the new Vanity Fair reviewer says nice things. Anyone who can lay naked on the grass at night waiting for the world to end deserves at least a 1% bump on their SEB count by end of week, no?

Shelby says: Kirsten Dunst will see at least a 1% gain in her SEB (from 20.7m to 20.9m) this week.
You say: Meh, no way.
Stakes: 1 Brag ($B)
Close: 11/16 EOD

ps. Hmm.. KDUNS is down a bit today..
pps. if you want some of the psychological backstory on why Lars would call himself a Nazi, check out the number that his mother did on him as young man. Yikes.

BET:11/14 -- Brad Pitt Retiring

Brad Pitt retiring in 3 years? Apparently so, as reported by 60 Minutes in Oz. Nice. Not sure the news has reached the USA yet or when it does if it will have any impact (that's PITT not PENN STATE, pay attention!) but let's see what it does.

Shelby says: Brad Pitts retirement news will be part of a small upward movement in Brad Pitt's $H value on HSX. BPITT started trading at $92.87 11/14 -- I'm betting it will be up 3% (above $H 95.65) by Sunday EOD (11:59p on 11/20).
You say: You have to be kidding with that retirement talk. Blah blah. Moneyball is done and he's going nowhere -- definitely less than 3% gain this week.
Stakes: 1 Brag ($B)
Close: 11/16 EOD

Index: Search Engine Buzz

One of the quick and dirty ways to get a sense of the "buzz factor" for some topic on the interwebs is to just enter that topic -- assuming it's relatively unique -- into a search engine, like Google, and see how many hits you get back. The assumption is that popular things get a lot of hits..

There are some trrending algorithms out there based on this primitive tactic -- my fave is the TIOBE Programming Community Index. It's not exactly German-engineered precision mood-tracking but it an interesting metric.

So I'm going to give it a go for the purposes of making bets. Some of my bets will use changes in the Google hit count over the course of a few days to track buzz progress on some celebrity nonsense. Certainly Charlie Sheen-like events will have to cause a ripple, but heck, let's see.

I'll stick with Google until further notice and on the tracking leaderboard (The Fame-o-meter!) I will represent these numbers in the SEB column. We will track the current number of hits in millions and the percentage change from the date (next to the celeb name).

Crystal? Ahv Coorz..

Index: Hollywood Stock Exchange

One of my favorite ways to measure the value of a movie or a movie star is with the Hollywood Stock Exchange. This is a faux stock exchange that you play with the HSX made-up currency, where you buy and sell confidence and "futures" in Hollywood properties. Cool, eh? Celebrity as commodity.

I've played the game on and off for a while, and I'm really not enough of a nerd to get much enjoyment out of it by myself, but I've always wanted to make bets with my friends about what makes a movie stock go up or down. Or what makes a movie star more or less "bankable".

So the HSX StarBonds and MovieStocks are going to be one of the metrics that I'm going to use to track the value of things. 

HSX "points" in the leaderboard will refer to the % of movement in this virtual stock over a period of time, and I'll keep track of a start price in my initial posts and bets.

Fameology Betting Ground Rules

One of my magical abilities is the gift of predicting the attention-holding trajectories of the famous and famesque. Think of this site as me sharing that gift with the vasty interwebs.

I plan to post bets about the impact of celebrity shenanigans on fame-detectors that I can measure. You can see how well I do on my predictions and you can bet against me and win stuff if you beat me. Or you can just marvel at my general rightness.

I'll post 10 bets about celebrities every week, one at a time -- probably a couple a day. You can choose to take me on in one of my bets each week before the Thursday night deadline. If you've already picked a bet and you see me post a new bet that you like better you can switch, as long as you do it before the Thursday deadline. 

I will run a version of my Celebrity Trajectories betting game -- hosted by b3TZ -- every season. We're in Fall 2011 right now and the first game will really kick off in earnest in Winter 2012.

There will be prizes of some sort for the winners in a couple categories:

1) I'll give anyone $20 (yes, I'll mail it to you by snail mail!) to anyone who can beat me for 3 consecutive weeks. Good luck with that.

2) Weekly winners will collect "Fame Star" badges, and..

3) Whoever gets the most "Fame Stars" for a season will win the "Fameho" trophy and I'll write a blog post about them in a style and manner of their choosing.

The betting and the prizes will kick off in the Winter 2012 season but b3tz may come online before that and I may offer some short term prizes as we're kicking off. More on that later.